Niemczyk i Wspólnicy

A majority of international observers were looking forward to a new plan that was due after Barack Obama was declared the President of The United States. The consultations and experts discussions over the last two months could suggest that after seven years the policy against Afghanistan will finally change and this time the US government will take under consideration the specific situation in the country and in the region. Unfortunately Obama's speech from March the 21-st was far from the expectations. The new plan have not only kept the same rules, but also the new President consider the fight against Al-Kaida and the Taliban as a main purpose for presents of American forces in Afghanistan. What's more, the US government have announced that the total number of American soldiers will increase of 17 thousand.

Acknowledge the enemy.
Looking at the present US politic in Afghanistan can be said that Obama's office took no conclusions, what so ever, from the experience and mistakes made by former G.W. Bush administration. The main problem is that the regular war rules, where military potential is essential, can not apply in Afghanistan simply because the military actions is being taken against the sings of the problem instead of its essence. Anyway, the announced strategy is nothing more than an answer for American public expectations, so eager to identify the enemy. The strategy of a country with a great power should not ignore the true problems such as social, cultural, political and economical aspects. Even more, the social and economical aspect of the conflict should be regarded as the most important one because the mood of the public implicates susceptibility to radical ideologies and leads to efficiency in stabilization process. The proper monitoring and description can help in adjusting the military actions to the real threats and also to the recipient's expectations.

The "burka" syndrome.
The mentality of Afghan people should be measured on the historical context with the strong consideration for the last three decades. Social consciousness is expressed by a very important tendency, which can be called the burka syndrome1. It has been eight years after the Taliban regime was put to the end and women of Afghanistan were given the right not to cover their faces. But this right is not being used at all and still Afghan women are not comfortable and brave to uncover their faces. The scale of the phenomenon is the same in no urban parts of the country as well as more modern Kabul. The burka syndrome is the typical disorder for post regime countries, where people are not used to individual and self-contained decisions and can not leave the old rules because of lack of the new acceptable regulations.
A great number of international observers see similarities between Afghanistan and Iraq and they try to accommodate experience from Middle East into Afghanistan. But the post-Saddam-Hussein society was much different that the one in Afghanistan. In both cases the end of the regime has taken similar effect in social life of the habitants where the long term rules have been destroyed. But the socialism in Iraq, although was not pathology free, was implementing progress, modernization and secular education. So when the regime was over the country have had the fresh and strong enough buck up to make up the new rules in the brand new reality.

The regim
The Soviet occupation, home war and the come back of the Koran tradition were the main reasons why Afghanistan was put under civilization regress, pauperization and the total crash of the country's economy. Intellectual backwardness was the very serious consequence of mass emigration within the local intelligence. After Taliban regime the country was left with no potential, no activity and no engagement, full of phobias, frustration and distrust. All of this plus the inside conflict and incredible social stagnation was a result of a lack of an authority. The lack of the leaders with strong public support, who would be able to introduce brand new reality, who would explain the need of transformation and change and finally who would guarantee all of this to be made according to the tradition. The need of authority that would be able to comfort Afghan people, introduce new content of existence and make them to engage themselves in the public life was left unsatisfied. Indifferentism of Afghan people depends mainly on the low level of trust in western countries and pro-American - it is believed - government of Hamid Kazaya. At the roots of this attitude lays the strong conviction about the civilization conflict in-between Western Countries and Middle East. The solid argument for that is the presence of American and ISAF forces in Afghanistan. Taking this into account the habitants takes every effort, made by the government in Kabul or western forces, very carefully and suspiciously. But at this stage there is no antigovernment or anticoalition tendency as it was in Iraq. Afghans do not put the resistance but also they are not interested in cooperation. There is no doubt that the factor that could move all the aspect of life in Afghanistan is the economical liveliness but this is impossible to be achieved only by temporary help actions from outside.
The lack of long term development strategy, enterprise promotion and infrastructure renewal makes Afghanistan dependant on other countries. It looks like a closed circle where disabled country lets its people to live in stagnation with no independency and engagement.

The crisis equal extremism.
This problem is clearly visible for president Obama, who plans to send to Afghanistan a group of 900 civil experts, who will help to rebuild country's economy. Although, when you compare the number of soldiers send to Afghanistan (plan for 50 thousands) with the number of civil experts it is clear that the economical development is not the priority for Washington.
The dynamic and a unique character of extremism makes very difficult to fight with and most of the times brings the unwanted result. Where one Koran school or training camp is destroyed another two are being placed in replacement with more adherents than before. Looking at this tendency the way of fighting extremism should be change for complete marginalization and should come up with the ideas and actions to stop the extremist's influence.
According to data from theatlantic.com the public support for Islamic fighters is les than 10% at the moment and keeps falling. This tendency will quickly turn over if the international community won't do anything to help Afghanistan. By not giving Afghan people an alternative option we are condemning then for extremism.


Marta Kozłowska